The Retirement Investment Paradox. When ‘Playing it Safe’ Is Risky

The conventional wisdom that retirees should abandon growth assets at 65 is outdated and potentially dangerous. It’s important to understand that retirement isn’t the finish line, it’s a marathon that often runs three decades.

Staying partially in growth assets in retirement can help sustain wealth. The real question isn’t whether to include growth assets, it’s how much to include.

Maintaining some growth assets in retirement

Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows the average intended retirement age is 65.6 years,¹ while ATO data reveals average super balances of around $430,000 for those aged 65-69.² With potential retirements lasting 25-30 years, abandoning growth entirely means your purchasing power erodes relentlessly as inflation compounds.

In general, it is advantageous for retirees to maintain around 20-40% in equities to help combat inflation and provide capital growth. This isn’t about chasing aggressive returns; it’s about preserving real wealth.

Practical allocation strategies:

• Age-based rules of thumb: The “100 minus your age” formula suggests a 65-year-old holds 35% in growth assets, gradually reducing to 20% by 80.
• Objective-based: If your super and Age Pension comfortably cover fixed expenses, you can afford higher growth exposure in discretionary funds.
• Time-horizon approach: Money needed within 5 years stays defensive; funds not required for 10+ years can remain growth-oriented.

Individual circumstances vary enormously depending on risk tolerance, total assets, and other income sources like the Age Pension.

What is sequencing risk?

Here’s where retirement investing gets genuinely dangerous and where many completely miss the threat until it’s too late.

Sequencing risk is the risk that the order and timing of your investment returns are unfavourable, resulting in less money for retirement.³ The retirement risk zone, the five years either side of retirement, is when sequencing risk matters most. A 37% market crash in year one of retirement (like 2008’s Global Financial Crisis) forces you to sell assets at depressed prices to meet minimum pension drawdowns, locking in losses permanently. The table below from Challenger shows the difference in impact if the same rates of market returns and inflation from June 1992 to June 2019 are sequenced in reverse chronological order. This reverse chronological sequence delivers wildly different outcomes.

Mitigating sequencing risk:

• Use an income ‘bucketing’ strategy. In very simple terms, this means having enough cash set aside so you can recover from a large fall in the share market before you continue to withdraw income. Keep 2-3 years of living expenses in cash to avoid selling growth assets during market downturns.
• Flexible withdrawals: Research shows flexible spending strategies, such as reducing withdrawals in down years, can significantly improve portfolio longevity compared to fixed dollar amounts.⁴
• Partial annuities: Allocating 20-30% to lifetime income products eliminates sequence risk for that portion, guaranteeing baseline income regardless of market timing.

Building a sustainable drawdown strategy

The famous “4% rule”, where you withdraw 4% of your balance in year one, then adjust annually for inflation, originated from US research in the 1990s. But 2026 isn’t 1994, and Australia isn’t America.

Morningstar’s 2025 retirement research suggests 3.9% is the highest safe starting withdrawal rate for new retirees seeking consistent inflation-adjusted spending, assuming a 90% probability of funds lasting 30 years.⁵ That’s down from the traditional 4% because of current bond yields, equity valuations, and inflation expectations. However, the same research suggests retirees willing to tolerate spending fluctuations can start with withdrawal rates approaching 6%, significantly higher than the rigid 3.9% base case.

Australian-specific considerations:

Government-mandated minimum drawdown rates for 2025-26 range from 4% for ages 65-74, up to 14% for those 95+.⁶ Crucially, you must withdraw these minimums from your super pension, but you don’t have to spend them. Unspent amounts can be kept in non-super accounts as emergency buffers or discretionary investment capital.

Building your drawdown framework:

• Layer your income: Age Pension (if eligible) covers essentials, super pension provides lifestyle income, investment accounts fund discretionary spending.
• Adjust annually: Review withdrawal amounts each January based on portfolio performance, spending needs, and health changes.
• Separate essential from discretionary: If travel costs can be deferred during bear markets, you’ve dramatically reduced sequence risk.
• Consider bucketing: Year 1-3 expenses in cash, years 4-10 in bonds/conservative assets, 10+ years in growth investments.

Your next move

Pull out your super statement and calculate: what percentage of your balance are you withdrawing annually? Does your portfolio allocation match your actual time horizon? Have you stress-tested what happens if markets drop 30% in your first retirement year?

If your current withdrawal rate exceeds your portfolio’s likely real returns, you’re in capital depletion mode, acceptable if intentional, dangerous if accidental.

The difference between thriving financially through a 30-year retirement versus anxiously watching your balance dwindle comes down to one strategic decision at 65: accepting that retirement is too long to abandon growth entirely, while respecting that sequence matters more than average returns.